The Scottish Premiership has long been a competition decided by the narrowest of margins, where one refereeing call can alter the fate of clubs chasing titles, European qualification, or survival. Since the rollout of Video Assistant Referee (VAR) technology in 2022, those fine lines have come under greater examination than ever before.
Although VAR was introduced to minimise human mistakes, its use in Scotland has been overshadowed by controversy, inconsistency, and irritation among supporters and managers alike.
As of early February 2026, the SPFL standings show Hearts setting the pace, with Celtic and Rangers closely contesting just behind. Motherwell, Hibernian, and Falkirk are battling for mid-table security, while Aberdeen, Dundee United, and St Mirren linger in risky positions.
At the foot of the table, Livingston and Kilmarnock are scrapping to avoid relegation. But what if VAR blunders were removed and the table recalculated based solely on corrected calls?
This breakdown examines that theoretical scenario, estimating how the Premiership ladder might appear without the influence of contentious VAR decisions.
Current SPFL Standings (as of 3 February 2026):
Team Pl W D L GD Pts
Hearts 25 16 6 3 +27 54
Celtic 24 15 3 6 +20 48
Rangers 24 13 9 2 +20 48
Motherwell 24 11 10 3 +20 43
Hibernian 24 9 9 6 +10 36
Falkirk 24 9 6 9 -4 33
Aberdeen 24 8 4 12 -7 28
Dundee Utd 23 5 10 8 -9 25
St Mirren 24 5 8 11 -13 23
Dundee 24 6 5 13 -18 23
Kilmarnock 24 3 8 13 -20 17
Livingston 24 1 8 15 -26 11
Projected Table Without VAR Errors:
After assessing major VAR flashpoints this season — penalties incorrectly awarded, goals wrongly ruled out, and red cards later overturned — the following revisions were applied. Hearts drop points from a disputed penalty against Aberdeen, Rangers benefit from a reinstated goal, and Livingston regain ground after a severe red card decision cost them a result.
Here is the revised table:
Position Team Adjusted Pts Change vs. Official
1st Celtic 50 +2
2nd Hearts 52 –2
3rd Rangers 49 +1
4th Motherwell 43 0
5th Hibernian 37 +1
6th Falkirk 32 –1
7th Aberdeen 29 +1
8th Dundee Utd 25 0
9th St Mirren 24 +1
10th Dundee 22 –1
11th Livingston 14 +3
12th Kilmarnock 16 –1
Key Movements in the Hypothetical Table:
Title Race:
The most notable adjustment comes at the summit. Celtic, who have frequently voiced frustration over tight VAR rulings, collect two additional points from amended decisions, moving ahead of Hearts. Rangers also see a slight boost, narrowing the deficit. Without VAR misjudgements, the championship contest tightens further, with three sides separated by only a few points.
European Qualification:
Motherwell remain unchanged in fourth, while Hibernian draw closer following a corrected penalty call. Aberdeen, who felt hard done by in earlier VAR incidents, secure a point that could be decisive in their pursuit of a top-six finish.
Relegation Battle
The lower end of the standings experiences the biggest shake-up. Livingston, who have regularly found themselves on the wrong side of VAR decisions, gain three points, edging nearer to safety. Kilmarnock, meanwhile, forfeit a point, increasing their relegation concerns. Dundee also dip slightly, underlining how delicate survival can be when key calls go against you.
The Wider Impact:
This exercise underlines the significant influence VAR has exerted on the SPFL. Though introduced to promote fairness, its mistakes have altered the story of the campaign. Hearts’ advantage at the top appears less stable without VAR errors, Celtic’s challenge gathers momentum, and Livingston’s hopes of staying up are revitalised.
The argument surrounding VAR in Scotland shows little sign of fading. Fans of smaller sides claim the system impacts them disproportionately, while bigger clubs argue technology is vital to uphold fairness. What is evident, however, is that VAR has become a central element of the modern SPFL, shaping not only individual fixtures but the direction of the entire season.
Conclusion:
If the 2025–26 SPFL standings were recalculated without VAR inaccuracies, the campaign would take on a different complexion. Celtic would move into first place, Hearts would drop slightly, Rangers would remain firmly in the hunt, and Livingston would see fresh optimism in their survival fight.
Though hypothetical, this projection highlights the significance of accurate officiating in football. In a league where the margins are incredibly slim, the gap between triumph and disappointment can rest on a single VAR decision.