The curtain will come up on the first Premier League Wear-Tyne Derby in nine years with the battle with the old enemy set to take place this Sunday at 2pm.
Hostilities will be renewed with our nearest neighbours riding the crest of a wave of a league start beyond their wildest dreams, and United will have to be ready for what will be a febrile atmosphere.
A repeat of the last time the sides faced each other would be most welcome, the 3-0 cakewalk of January 2024’s FA Cup win, but a Sunderland side that has seen rapid development in just shy of two years will present a very different challenge.
But there is a clear route to victory for Newcastle, and whilst it may not be as much of a walk in the park as last time the sides faced each other, Eddie Howe’s side have generally always found a way to win the huge games, none more so the last seasons generational League Cup victory.
Route to Victory #1: The full backs
It’s no secret that having Tino Livramento and Lewis Hall back fit has coincided with the general uptick in Newcastle’s recent form. The current mini four game unbeaten run is United’s longest of the season, and the two young full backs (despite Hall not starting against Burnley) have played in all four matches with arguably the most complete (despite there still being some shortcomings) display of the season so far, Everton away, seeing the pair maraud forward and defend well in equal measure.
Hall is also a boyhood fan, so will understand the fixture through his family, and both Tino and Hall are young, upcoming fullbacks who are in with a shout of being England’s best in the future.
It’s concerning that there is no cover for Tino at RB as he has played a lot of football since his return from injury but his ability to cut inside into a midfield position gives United another dimension to its attacking phases and play means he will start on Sunday.
Reason to be Wary #1: Their home form
Sunderland is still unbeaten at home in the Premier League and in that time, they’ve played sides that are in and around the top half the table, including Arsenal, Everton, and Bournemouth.
To be fair, Regis Le Bris appears to have his side playing beyond the sum of its parts, with the late fight back against Arsenal something which must be lauded due to the Gunners form at the time, and until Wednesday was something Newcastle have struggled to do this season, gaining points from a losing position.
However, they did lose to League One Huddersfield in the League Cup on penalties, so it’s not a completely unblemished record, and whilst Sunday’s game cannot go to penalties (and their side was much rotated) it’s worth remembering as it’s always funny when a lower league side dumps your nearest rivals out of your trophy.
Route to Victory #2: Gordon form and Bruno brilliance
Whilst Anthony Gordon is not back to his very best, he has certainly had a positive effect on United’s recent games, netting in three consecutive matches against Spurs, Burnley and Leverkusen.
All three came from the penalty spot and Gordon has upped that part of his game since the miss at Everton last season, so much so that when he steps up you feel confident, he is going to hit the back of the net. His assist for Miley’s header against Leverkusen was also most welcome as he showed his fullback a clean set of heels and put in a delicious cross.
A lad who sits joint 4th in the Champions League top goalscorer list (5 goals) is finding ways to perform in the big games and he’ll know what’s expected of him as despite his young age (24) the lad is one of the senior players in the dressing room as a full England international and arguably will be starting for the national side on the LW in this summer’s World Cup.
Reason to be Wary #2: Ramsdale and Sunderland from set pieces
Starting with a positive: Aaron Ramsdale made six saves on Wednesday night, some of which were vital in us coming away with a point. But what he has shown in his short time in goal for United is a lack of a desire/ability (delete as appropriate) to come of his line for crosses.
Over the last 365 days of data, Ramsdale has only stopped 5.2% of crosses into his box, and despite his increased ability with the ball at his feet compared to Nick Pope, his average distance of his defensive actions (10.8 yards) i.e. his sweeping ability; puts him in the bottom 3rdpercentile of keepers in the top five divisions in Europe. This bad habit was on display against Leverkusen as he nearly cost us a chance in the first half as he failed to come for a ball Thiaw expected him to.
Throw in Sunderland’s ability from set pieces (eight out of 16 goals including a winner at Forest and an equaliser against Arsenal, they will certainly be looking to exploit the weakness in Ramsdale’s game.
However, Sunderland’s eight goals have come from an xG of just 2.0, a gross overperformance and this is the same extrapolated out across their general goalscoring data. Their 18 goals have come from just 13.7xG and with them winning just one in six, they are the side in declining form, as well as running incredibly hot in front of goal, something that doesn’t tend to last.
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